MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0415...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
620 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR TYPO

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SRN MO...NRN AR...SRN IL...WRN KY...SRN
IN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 032040Z - 040240Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING MAY RESULT
IN HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY BACK INTO EASTERN
OK.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MO
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SUPPORTED BY 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...PWS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE
2.25 INCHES AHEAD OF THE WAVE...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN
KY AND SOUTHERN IND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  KPAH RADAR IS
SHOWING RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR FROM FROM SOME OF THESE
DEVELOPING STORMS.  MEANWHILE...A LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE
OF THE WAVE...EXTENDING BACK ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER INTO
NORTHEASTERN OK...IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS REDEVELOPING CONVECTION AS IT
INTERACTS WITH UPSTREAM MID LEVEL ENERGY.  DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 02 UTC...RECENT RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL HRRR SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES.  

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38318767 37798618 37048753 36468861 36229016 
            36249262 36349454 35839682 36209708 36899604 
            37359429 37209165 37369078 37798970