MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0416
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
901 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK TO NORTHWESTERN AR AND SOUTHWESTERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 040100Z - 040500Z
 
SUMMARY...FURTHER BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO BACK INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL OK.  ALOFT...A
SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN OK.  AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH
A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWS OF
2.25-2.5 INCHES CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OK THIS
EVENING...WITH THE 00Z KOUN SOUNDING INDICATING PWS AROUND 2.3
INCHES.  LATEST GOES IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL
ACROSS CENTRAL OK.  CELLS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD ALONG THE EXISTING
LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN BACK INTO CENTRAL OK...WHILE KTLX
AND KINX BOTH SHOW SOME CELLS ALONG THIS LINE PRODUCING RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HR.  AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW OF 25-30 KTS IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN PWS OF
2.25 INCHES OR MORE...WITH MUCAPES REMAINING 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

RECENT RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL HRRR SHOW STORMS
CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES AND EMBEDDED
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING
AT 06 UTC. 

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36919294 36549149 35879369 35009557 35049777 
            35409729 35619646 36359532 36889442