MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0418
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
518 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 040914Z - 041415Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH BACKBUILDING CONVECTION POSSIBLY LEADING TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 4-5 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 09Z SHOWED AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NRN
TEXAS WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
FTW AND SPS. THE DEVELOPING ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG THE BASE OF
A LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND OUT AHEAD OF A MORE ROBUST
VORTICITY MAX IDENTIFIED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT 09Z IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE MPD THREAT AREA HAS AN ESTIMATED 1000-2000 J/KG
MUCAPE BASED ON RECENT SPC AND RAP MESOANALYSES AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES VIA RECENT GPS SITE MEASUREMENTS. 

INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOWARD THE ESE AT
20-25 KTS...OF A SIMILAR DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE TO 850-700 MB
MEAN INFLOW. THROUGH 12Z...850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND
MAGNITUDE OF LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW...TRAINING OF CELLS WITH
REGENERATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
POTENTIAL EXITS FOR HOURLY RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4-5 INCHES. 

THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z NMMB/ARW AND RECENT RUNS OF ALL
THREE VERSIONS OF THE HRRR. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL AND EXACT PLACEMENT...ITS POSSIBLE
LOCATION NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX BEARS WATCHING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34319736 34289625 34159510 33909466 33409467 
            32709507 32029638 32019764 32369820 32749849 
            33789835