MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0419
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
929 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL/IN...NORTHERN KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041328Z - 041828Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN/WESTERN KY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/IL/IN/KY THIS MORNING. SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
BEING PROVIDED BY A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MO...AND AN UPPER 70-90 KT JET MOVING ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY PUTTING THE AREA IN THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.
MEANWHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2.25" STRETCH
ACROSS THE AREA OF CONVECTION PER GPS AND RAP ANALYSES. THESE
VALUES ARE APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED EFFICIENT RAINFALL.

THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN MO EASTWARD TO ALONG/NEAR THE IN/KY BORDER. THIS AXIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORED REGION OF 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING. ONE AREA OF FOCUS IS NEAR THE CURRENT WARM FRONT
CONVECTIVE BAND AND AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN KY AS OF 13Z. ANOTHER REGION IS IN AN
AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2" AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. AND WHILE THE WHOLE
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...TRAINING ALONG/NEAR THE WARM FRONT BAND
NEAR THE KY/IN BORDER...ALONG WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE/CIRCULATION...COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2-4". THIS IS FALLING ON TOP OF AN
INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOIL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD
RISK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

WE LIKE THE GENERAL QPF AXIS SHOWN BY THE 11Z PARALLEL
HRRR...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOW WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION. MOST OF THE OTHER HIGH RES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE APPEAR
TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

CHENARD 

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39008484 38848465 38308479 37858549 37298677 
            36938760 36538906 36439054 36329124 36519156 
            36609153 36989110 37319012 37548920 38108779 
            38438706 38848579