MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0422
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR INTO NRN MS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 050929Z - 051430Z
 
SUMMARY...AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG WITH TRAINING
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED FROM SERN ARKANSAS INTO NRN
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING
RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS SRN ARKANSAS OVER THE PAST
HOUR...LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING 700-500 MB TROUGH AXIS
LOCATED OVER A LINE CONNECTING LIT TO TXK TO DAL. RECENT GPS SITE
MEASUREMENTS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.O TO 2.1
INCHES ACROSS THE ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI BORDER AND MUCAPE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. WHILE UPPER JET LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT STRONG...THE FLOW IS VERY DIFFLUENT OVER ARKANSAS
AND NRN MISSISSIPPI WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN LIFT IN THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

WITH AREA VAD WIND PLOTS SHOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WSW AT
25-30 KTS...LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS IDENTICAL OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN CLOUD BEARING LAYER WIND VECTORS...SUPPORTING BACKWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WITH TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3
IN/HR AND STORM TOTAL RATES OF 4-5 INCHES THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MPD THREAT AREA OVER THE PAST
WEEK OR TWO...THESE QUICK FALLING RAIN RATES MAY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34758967 34718878 34348843 33198871 32969002 
            32959136 33409228 33679278 34029284 34449188