MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0425
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
904 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 061300Z - 061700Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WITH VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES IS EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE...AND WILL DRIVE AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO AND
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. ALREADY VERY
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS IN IR SATELLITE IMAGES TO NEAR -70C ALONG
WITH A COUPLE OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE BEING DETECTED JUST
NORTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY.

THE CONVECTION WHICH IS GENERALLY ELEVATED IN NATURE IS DEVELOPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KS THIS
MORNING...AND INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 2000 J/KG. THERE IS A RATHER WELL-DEFINED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH GREATER INSTABILITY VALUES
POOLED FAR EAST AHEAD OF THE MCV ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MO.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE AROUND THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST FLANKS OF THE MCV
GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL FORCING/LIFT AND
COINCIDENCE WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS. THE CONVECTION MAY ALSO
TEND TO EXPAND EVEN FARTHER DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NORTHEAST MO AS
POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING SOUTH
THROUGH IL OCCURS.

PWATS AS PER GPS DATA IS NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH WILL FOSTER INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR...BUT THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE CELLS WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HEAVIER STORM TOTALS.
THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS NOT DOING WELL AT ALL WITH THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE
FOR THE CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR-TLE DOES SUGGEST THIS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
MO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THROUGH MIDDAY THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES AND ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS. SOME
FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40289358 40199283 40009218 39539228 39319295 
            39239366 39249455 39299537 39579602 39929589 
            40179523 40259439