MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0426
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1204 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 061600Z - 062000Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED FROM MERGING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HR
EXPECTED. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVE MORNING CONVECTION ARE ABOUT TO MERGE OVER
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF EASTERN MO. MEANWHILE...IN BETWEEN THE TWO
BOUNDARIES IS A CHANNEL OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3500 J/KG AND PWATS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BASED ON SURFACE TRENDS AND PER
HRRR AND HRRRP GUIDANCE...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MERGE AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER EXPANSION AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD REACH AND
POSSIBLY EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR GIVEN THE VERY MOIST COLUMN AND
EXPECTATION OF CELL-MERGERS.

THE HIRES GUIDANCE LED BY THE HRRR/HRRRP SUGGESTS GENERALLY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MO...BUT THESE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY GOING TO A LITTLE LOW FOR AREAS
THAT SEE STRONGER CELL-MERGER ACTIVITY...AND PLUS THE HIGH PWAT
ENVIRONMENT FAVORS GREATER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. THUS...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO SEE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES...AND AS A RESULT...SOME
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40029303 40029231 39789180 39289106 38739048 
            37928975 37298950 36738970 36509034 36609090 
            36839127 37079152 37639169 38349197 38839250 
            39479318 39839331