MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0428
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TO MIDDLE
TN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 070650Z - 071150Z
 
SUMMARY...BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CONVECTION LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS 40-50 KT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INTERSECT A SLOW MOVING
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MO INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TN.  A RATHER DIFFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN
ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE ALONG THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT REPEATING
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE BOUNDARY.  GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AROUND 12 UTC.  AS THE ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL VORT DROPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY AND
TN...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO DIP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.  FOR THE 6-HR
PERIOD ENDING AT 13 UTC...MANY OF THE OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
MEMBERS INDICATE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6
INCHES. 

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37208941 36938841 36688695 36088642 35668695 
            35808792 36498899