MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0429
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NE...NRN KS...SWRN IA...NWRN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 070835Z - 071300Z
 
SUMMARY....TRAINING/REDEVELOPING CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS.

DISCUSSION...DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS
INTO IA/MO...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS THE THREAT FOR SHORT-TERM
TRAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESE BOWING SEGMENTS. 
REDEVELOPING CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AN OUTFLOW REINFORCED BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM IA BACK ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER.  THE LATEST RAP
SHOWS PWS INCREASING TO 1.75-2.25 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KS...SOUTHEASTERN NE INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA AND NORTHWESTERN
MO...WHILE MUCAPES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG.  WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSES EJECTING ACROSS NEB SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGER
SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.  THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEB INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA THROUGH 14 UTC...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41859347 41519305 40829342 39949457 39309656 
            39499807 39839945 40399945 40729721 41439575