MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0433
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
505 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...E TENNESSEE...W NORTH CAROLINA...SW KENTUCKY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 072100Z - 080100Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY POSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS AS MCS
MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. 

DISCUSSION...WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE CENTERS CURRENTLY OVER SW VA
AND OVER SW IN ARE CONNECTED WITH A MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NC/NE TN INTO MCS ACROSS S CENT
KY AT THIS TIME.  MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THE TROF WITH TPWS AT
OR AROUND 1.75" PER BLENDED TPW/GPS NETWORK UP TO 2.0" IN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE AREAS OVER W TN.  ALSO IN ADVANCE OF THE MCS LOW TO
MID-70S TDS AND GOOD SFC HEATING HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR SBCAPES TO PEAK AT 4000 J/KG.  ADDITIONALLY THIS
CONFLUENCE ZONE IS ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO THE SW-NE TERRAIN FOR
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AS WELL AS EXTRACTING ALL
MOISTURE BELOW 5000 FT INTO COMPLEX RUN-OFF STREAMS POTENTIALLY
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW.

CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING IN
ADVANCE OF THE MCS COOL POOL AS WELL AS CELLS ACROSS W NC THAT MAY
ADD SOME ADDITIONAL TOTALS PRIOR TO THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE
NEARING W NC BY 23-00Z.  RAIN RATES UP TO 2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE BUT
GIVEN FORWARD SPEED TOTALS OF 1-3" ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN LOCALIZED
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS.  

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SW KY/W VA...LOWER FF VALUES MAY BE ECLIPSED
IN THE SHORT-TERM AND ARE INCLUDED AS AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF MPD
431.   

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37608336 37368250 36198283 35468225 35208359 
            35328472 35528532 35948591 36078543 36698382