MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0434
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1124 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080330Z - 080700Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION INTENSIFYING IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR COULD PRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN...AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF A FRONT BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN IL...WHERE THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. 

THE RAP ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED THE CONVECTION INCREASING IN AN AXIS
OF 1.40 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. IN THIS AXIS...THE KLDH RADAR
SHOWED AREAS OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
OVER NORTHERN AITKIN AND SOUTHERNMOST ITSSCA COUNTIES. HOWEVER...
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF RAP SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA...COMBINED
WITH HAIL REPORTS SOUTHWEST OF KDLH...SUGGEST THESE VALUES COULD
BE OVERDONE.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
(INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/RAP) FOR THE
INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY BECOME EXHAUSTED THROUGH ABOUT 07Z...AS THE
AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL WI. LOCAL 2-3
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MN THROUGH ABOUT 07Z. ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES AN HOUR...SO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   48519346 48039163 47139172 46019213 45559268 
            45709333 46369401 46739428 47559445