MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0435
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080400Z - 080900Z
 
SUMMARY...A DEVELOPING MCS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WILL PRODUCE
CONVECTION WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...CREATES A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE IR LOOP SHOWED AN MCS INTENSIFYING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS...WHERE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -73 C
CELSIUS. TO THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN OUTFLOW
DOMINATED... WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE PRESENTATION ON THE
00Z KTOP SOUNDING. THE MCS IS INTENSIFYING IN AN AXIS OF 3500-4500
J/KG OF MLCAPE...AS WELL AS A RIBBON OF NEARLY 2.00 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. KTWX RADAR HAS SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...BUT GIVEN THE HAIL REPORTS AND THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE KTOP SOUNDING...THESE
AMOUNTS ARE ALMOST ASSUREDLY HAIL CONTAMINATED. HOWEVER...THE KDP
PRODUCT FROM KTWX SHOWED DISTINCT HEAVY RAIN CORES OVER GREENWOOD
AND CLIMAX COUNTIES IN KS. 

TRENDS ON THE KTWX RADAR ALSO SHOWED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MO. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE MCS OVER SOUTHEAST KS. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST
THAT A SLOW SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE...RAISING
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR CELL MERGERS.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE TRAINING/MERGERS OCCURS. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39039504 38799201 37289103 37109305 37059520 
            37909665