MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0436
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL CO INTO NORTHWEST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080615Z - 081215Z
 
SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A MOISTURE UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL CO COULD RESULT IN A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...KPUX RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF A 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST JET FROM WESTERN KS
IN EAST CO. THE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN AN AXIS OF 1000-2000
J/KG MLCAPE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CREEP UP TOWARD 1.20
INCHES. THUS FAR...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED ALONG A LOW
LEVEL AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR KCOS INTO WESTERN CO...AND KPUX
HAS SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT HAIL COULD BE CONTAMINATING THE
RADAR ESTIMATES...AS HOURLY MESONET OBSERVATIONS TO THIS POINT
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES. 

PER THE LATEST RAP...THE OVERALL SET UP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...AS MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR 1.25
INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS A QUESTION... AS MID LEVEL
FLAT RIDGING DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...TRAINING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW...AND THIS WOULD REPRESENT THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE LATEST HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS SUGGEST LOCAL 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS... MAINLY EAST OF KCOS. THE 00Z NSSL AND 00Z NAM
CONUS NEST SUGGEST LOCAL 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST IN THE
PLAINS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES IN PLACE...AS
WELL AS ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW...FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS A CONCERN. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39840401 39810334 39790262 39640132 39440093 
            39010091 38690264 38620401 38580417 38560462 
            38560497 38840528 39480526 39810445