MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0437
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL ...WESTERN KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080800Z - 081400Z
 
SUMMARY...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT
OVER AREAS WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AN MCS OVER EAST CENTRAL MO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -73 CELSIUS AS IT TRACKS EAST
SOUTHEAST...ALONG AN AXIS OF 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR AND
2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE COMPLEX HAS SHOWN AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY RECENTLY WITH THE COOLING TOPS...AND THE KLSX RADAR
SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
MARIES AND PHELPS COUNTIES. 

THE LATEST RAP SHOWED THAT 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM EAST CENTRAL MO THROUGH WESTERN KY THROUGH 14Z...DURING
WHICH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.25
INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN).
THE RAP ALSO SHOWED WHAT APPEARED TO BE A MCV TRACKING FROM INTO
SOUTHERN IL...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONVECTION. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL ALSO SHOWED WET BULB ZERO VALUES NEAR
13500 FEET SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, 

WHILE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE RIPE FOR THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
REMAIN INTACT AND PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN KY...NOT MUCH OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PRODUCES HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE 00Z
WRF ARW SHOWED SPOTS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IL INTO WESTERN KY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR/HRRR
EXPERIMENTAL/PARALLEL HRRR SHOWED THE COMPLEX WEAKENING...
MITIGATING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
IL INTO WESTERN KY ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH...DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER THIS WEEK. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38168998 38028808 37908657 37368602 37188618 
            36788641 36528709 36368949 36729111 37849116