MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0438
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WV...FAR
SOUTHWEST VA...FAR SOUTHERN OH 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 081755Z - 082245Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. RELATIVELY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED MCV IN NOTED IN GOES-13 VIS IMAGERY
CROSSING THE OH RIVER CURRENTLY AND MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KY.
THIS ENERGY IS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY AND
NOSING NORTHEAST UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN OH AND EAST OVER INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV. MLCAPE VALUES WITH THE AID OF STRONG
SOLAR INSOLATION AND RESULTING DIABATIC HEATING HAVE RISEN TO 2500
TO 3500 J/KG. MEANWHILE...PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES.
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED OVER THE REGION IS BEING
FACILITATED BY BROADLY CONFLUENT W/SW 850/700 MB FLOW...WITH MUCH
OF THE TRANSPORT EMANATING FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN TN.

CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND RAPIDLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVER THE MIDDLE TO UPPER OH VALLEY AND DOWN TO NORTHWEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCV WILL FOSTER MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SUCH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND PROXIMITY OF
CONFLUENT LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER
THE THREAT AREA ARE QUITE MOIST...AND WITH SUCH HIGH
PWATS...HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES/HR MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE HIRES WRF-ARW...WRF-NMMB
AND NSSL-WRF ALL SUGGEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
WILL BE MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...BUT EXPECT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WV AND FAR SOUTHWEST VA TO SEE HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS
ARRIVING AS WELL BY 20 TO 21Z.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39418042 39067974 38048038 37348130 36938204 
            36648344 36688424 36928500 37888527 38518494 
            38888433 38858278 39138128