MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0440
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...E TENNESSEE...EXT W NORTH CAROLINA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 082035Z - 090035Z
 
SUMMARY...CELLS MOVING INTO E TN/W VA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO HIGH RATES AND SOME WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. 

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND GOES-E SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A STRONG
LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS TOPS TO -65C AND SOME
REACHING BELOW -70C ACROSS E KY...NOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL TN AND WILL ADVANCE INTO W VA/NE TN SHORTLY.  THIS CELLS
HAVE A HISTORY OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IN THE 1.5-2"/HR RANGE
AND THOUGH GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE ARE MARGINAL TO PRODUCE 1-2"
TOTALS AS ADVANCE RAPIDLY. ADDITIONAL THREAT OF OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT MAY EXACERBATE RATES IN THE SHORT TERM BUT ALSO HAVE
HIGHER HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS DUE TO RAPID RESPONSE CHANNELS/STREAMS
IN THE VICINITY. 

ALONG THE SW SIDE OF THE LINE ACROSS N CENTRAL TN NEAR
PICKETT/OVERTON/JACKSON/CLAY COUNTY...CELLS ARE A BIT MORE
DISCRETE IN A WEAKER FLOW REGIME ALOFT FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER CELL
MOTIONS BUT ALSO UNFETTERED INFLOW...WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY TO
3500 J/KG MLCAPE AND HIGHER MOISTURE FLUX.  ADDITIONALLY WITH SOME
INDICATION OF CELL ROTATION...CELL MOTIONS ARE STILL 20-25 KTS PER
RAP RT. MOVING BUNKER VECTORS ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THESE STRENGTHENING CELLS.  ALSO FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW FROM 850-5H MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
ORTHOGONAL TO CELL MOTIONS ALLOWING FOR PROPAGATION VECTORS TO BE
NEAR ZERO OR EVEN SUPPORT SOME BACK-BUILDING TO THE LINE.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   36838194 36498186 36168209 35668289 35398414 
            35608510 36288590 36598587 36548361 36758273