MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0441
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
546 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE MISSOURI...NE ARKANSAS...W KENTUCKY...W
TENNESSEE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 082145Z - 090245Z
 
SUMMARY...FAIRLY CHAOTIC ORGANIZATION WITHIN VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  STILL...HIGH RAIN RATES/CELL MERGERS AND WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MAY POSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...A POOL OF GREATER THAN 2" TPW SITS ACROSS THE MO/AR
BORDER WITHIN A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER.  UPSTREAM A FAIRLY TIGHT MCV/SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SW MO IS PROVIDING AMPLE DPVA FOR BROAD SCALE ASCENT...COINCIDENT
WITH LARGE INSTABILITY (3000-4500 MLCAPES) AND NO CAPPING...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS S MO/NE AR ATTM.  WITHOUT
ANY LARGER FOCUS THE CONVECTION IS RANDOMLY MERGING AND EXPANDING
ON OUTFLOWS AS IT SLOWLY MARCHES EASTWARD.  THE ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS AS THEY ARE SUPPORT RAIN RATES UP TO 2"...INCREASED IN
MERGERS...LEADING TO  LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS NORTH OF
36.5N (MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER).  HOWEVER...SE MO AND W KY HAVING
OVER 300-700% OF NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS PROVIDES
SOME ELEVATED CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA.

HI-RES GUIDANCE IS A BIT SPLIT ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION.  THE
HRRR VER.2 AND ARW ARE A BIT MORE RIGOROUS SHOWING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL ADVANCING THE COMPLEX EASTWARD ACROSS S
KY/CENT TN THOUGH THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37258858 37118707 36148679 35528749 35448933 
            35699117 36029153 36959155 37028986