MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0443
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
700 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN OK...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091100Z - 091500Z
 
SUMMARY...A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THERE IS A RATHER PERSISTENT AREA OF COLD-TOPPED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST AR THIS MORNING THAT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. CLOUD TOP TEMPS INVOLVING THE ENTIRE
CONVECTIVE MASS HAVE TENDED TO WARM A BIT...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME
RATHER VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS.

THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF FAIRLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION AND THERE IS A SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION
WHICH COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY CONFLUENT 850 MB FLOW APPEARS TO BE
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AND PROMOTE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR BACKBUILDING CELLS.

THE WRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY TEND TO
BACKBUILD PAST 12Z ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AR IN PARTICULAR. PWATS
OVER THE REGION ARE NEAR 2 INCHES BASED ON GPS-DERIVED DATA...AND
THIS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE GREATER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY FOR ENHANCED
RATES. ALREADY SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN 3 TO 4 INCHES...AND BASED ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3
INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BEYOND MID-MORNING...BUT UNTIL THEN THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36009407 35649272 35139218 34629261 34579432 
            34989525 35579521 35919480