MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0446
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1105 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND...FAR NORTHEAST SD...PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100305Z - 100805Z
 
SUMMARY...AN INCREASING AREA OF CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN MERGERS
AND  BACKBUILDING...PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.00
INCHES AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. 

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS ACROSS ND SHOWED CONVECTION STARTING
TO TURN SOUTHEAST ...FOLLOWING THE BEST GRADIENT OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. THE 00Z BIS
SOUNDING SHOWED 5000 J/KG OF SBCAPE... WHILE THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING
SHOWED A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF SBCAPE.
THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY OUTFLOW DOMINATED...BASED ON
THE KMVX RADAR PRESENTATION. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND...WHERE KMVX INDICATED
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.50 INCHES. 

CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND HAS BEEN SHOWING
INDICATIONS OF TRAINING...AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION (OR NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES)
REPRESENT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/PARALLEL HRRR AND LATEST RAP)
SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ND COALESCES INTO A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (OR POSSIBLE MCS) THAT TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN ND
INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. THE LATEST RAP SHOWED A 25 TO 30
KNOT INFLOW OF 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR AND MUCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 J/KG PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. 

THE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ND IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING MODELED
WELL BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...BUT MERGERS AND
BACKBUILDING COULD RESULT IN LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE SHORT TERM.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   48109820 47459649 45309424 44999486 45549775 
            46499973 47889996