MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0450
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1114 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND...WESTERN MN...FAR NORTHEAST SD 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110315Z - 110745Z
 
SUMMARY...A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CROSSING EASTERN ND AND
WESTERN MN COULD PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES
OVER AREAS WITH RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER EASTERN ND IS
GAINING STRENGTH...AS THE IR LOOP SHOWED SLOWLY COOLING TOPS. THE
COMPLEX IS STRENGTHENING IN THE PRESENCE OF A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW
LEVEL INFLOW (PER RECENT REGIONAL VWP)...ON THE EDGE OF AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT (WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG
ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD). THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IS LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP (AS
SEEN ON THE 00Z KABR SOUNDING). 

THE KBIS RADAR SHOWED AREAS OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATE BETWEEN 1.50
AND 2.00 INCHES OVER MCLEAN COUNTY ND. MESONET REPORTS FROM ND
SHOWED HOURLY RATES CLOSER TO AN INCH NORTH OF KBIS...AND HAIL
REPORTS WITH THE COMPLEX SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KBIS. 

AS THE COMPLEX BECOMES AN MCS (THIS IS DEPICTED BY MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE)...IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GRADIENT OF BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN ND/NEARBY
WESTERN MN AND A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHEAST SD. THERE IS LESS
AGREEMENT AMONG THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS (AND TO SOME DEGREE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST
QPF). FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING MCS...HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES COULD RESULT IN LOCAL 3.00 INCHES
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OR CELL MERGERS
OCCUR. THIS IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT HRRR/HRRR PARALLEL.

HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF EASTERN ND INTO NEARBY WESTERN MN
(DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY SUN MORNING). WHILE THE ACTIVITY
COULD REMAIN OUTFLOW DOMINATED...THE LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES COULD MAKE FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   48019781 47349484 45039440 44789577 45509851 
            46109997 46790021 47659950