MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0458
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
538 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120940Z - 121400Z
 
SUMMARY...AN MCS WILL CROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION WITHIN THE MCS COULD PRODUCE
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.00 INCHES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE IR LOOP SHOWED A MATURING MCS OVER NORTHEAST
KS...WHERE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -7 CELSIUS. UNDER THE
COLD CLOUD TOPS...THE KTWX RADAR HAS DEPICTED HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 3.00 INCHES WHEN THE MCS PASSED OVER OTTAWA
AND CLAY COUNTIES IN KS. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION ON AN OUTFLOW
DROPPED ACROSS NORTHWEST MO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH...AS IT
APPROACHES KMCI. THE KEAX RADAR HAS INDICATED HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES WITH THIS FEATURE. 

THE MCS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF A 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN MO (PER RECENT VWP
OBSERVATIONS). THE MCS IS FOLLOWING A 2500 J/KG MLCAPE AXIS...IN A
POOL OF 2.10 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. 

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...A MERGER OF THE TWO CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS INTO WEST CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 0945Z
AND 1200Z. WHEN THE MERGER OCCURS... THERE SHOULD BE A SPIKE IN
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES...AND THIS IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. 

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL AGREEMENT (INCLUDING
THE 07Z HRRR/HRRR PARALLEL AND HRRR EXPERIMENTAL RUNS) ON THIS
TRACK (THOSE EACH MODEL IS A COUPLE OF HOUR BEHIND REALITY...BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR/00Z WRF ARW/00Z NSSL
WRF ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL... WHICH
COULD FALL QUICKLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT JUST ABOUT ALL HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN REALITY...AND TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THEIR RAINFALL MAXIMA. 

AS THE MCS OUTRUNS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... AND WHEN THIS
OCCURS...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH. 
THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE LATEST HRRR/PARALLEL HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39969282 38509130 37679154 37139323 37039582 
            37549750 38639782 39769678