MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0462...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1122 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR COUNTY NAMES IN MO

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 140310Z - 140910Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW
WILL TRAIN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE KLSX RADAR HAS SHOWN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST
KS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO. THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN
A RIBBON OF 1.80 TO 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES TOP OUT NEAR BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. THE CONVECTION IS
OVERCOMING CAPPING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AS THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED 700 MB TEMPERATURE
NEAR 14 CELSIUS.

THE KLSX RADAR DEPICTED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.50
INCHES...BUT BASED ON HAIL REPORTS OVER CENTRAL MO...THESE VALUES
ARE LIKELY HAIL CONTAMINATED. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST LEVEL KDP
PRODUCT SHOWED SEVERAL HEAVY RAINFALL CORES OVER CAMDEN AND
PULASKI COUNTIES. AS A LOW LEVEL 20 TO 25 KNOT FLOW CONTINUES TO
TRANSPORT 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO THE
CONVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE COLUMN
MOISTENING...SUGGESTING MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH
TIME.

THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FLOW DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTH  THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTION. CORFIDI VECTORS SHOWED A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT AS WELL.
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS NOT BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH THE LATEST HRRR/HRRR PARALLEL SHOWING SPOTTY 2-3
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BASED ON WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW AND GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT TERM TRAINING...THESE NUMBERS COULD BE
UNDERDONE. 

INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION TRAINS IN AN AREA WHERE THE ONE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES...WHICH ENHANCES THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. AS THE CONVECTION
DROPS SOUTH... FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES INCREASE... MITIGATING
THE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38619201 38589090 38258966 37848943 37178987 
            36719139 36839472 37289618 37659601 38059522 
            38479370 38479368