MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0463
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1250 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO AND NORTHWEST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 140430Z - 140830Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS EASTERN CO
INTO NORTHWEST KS COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS ACROSS EASTERN CO SHOWED AN
INCREASING AREA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CO INTO NEARBY NORTHWEST KS. 
THE CONVECTION IS FORMING AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL
CO...ON THE NORTERN EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST CO. 

A 20 TO 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW (PER RECENT VWP
OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS) IS TRANSPORTING 1.00
INCH PREICPITABLE WATER AIR INTO THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...AND
THE KPUX RADAR SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH IN THIS
AIRMASS OVER LINCOLN AND ELBERT COUNTIES. GIVEN THE HAIL REPORTS
IN NORTHWEST KS...AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS ON THE
00Z KDNR SOUNDINGS... THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE HAIL CONTAMINATED.

THE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CROSSING AREAS WHERE THE ONE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUDIANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES...AND TRAINING OVER THESE AREAS COULD EASILY PUSH HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES ABOVE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. 

THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z... BUT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS
TO THE SOUTH BY THAT TIME. THE LATEST HRRR/HRRR PARALLEL RUNS SHOW
THE POTENITAL FOR 2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING COULD
KEEP THE ACTIVITY SCATTERED...SO THE THREAT FOR FASLH FLOODING MAY
END UP BEING LOCALIZED. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39700304 39650261 39470152 39160101 38730096 
            38320149 38330204 38630423 38890447 39420435 
            39630382