MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0464...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
457 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL MO INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 140900Z - 141300Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AR COULD RESULT IN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.00
INCHES. THIS MUCH RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...THE IR LOOP SHOWED THAT THE MCS OVER CENTRAL MO MAY
HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES PEAKED NEAR -72 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND HAVE SLOWLY
WARMED SINCE THAT TIME. THE MCS HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG
AN INSTABILITY AXIS (1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE) STRETCHING FROM
NORTHWEST MO INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR. 

THE LOW LEVEL 25 TO 35 KNOT INFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT 2.00
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO THE MCS. KSGF RADAR SHOWED
CONVECTION TRAINING ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH HAS BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MO. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES FROM THE KSGF AREA WERE AS HIGH AS 2.50
TO 3.00 INCHES... ESPECIALLY OVER DALLAS AND LACLEDE
COUNTIES...THOUGH THESE VALUES HAVE DROPPED SOME.

THE LATEST RAP SHOWED THE MCS CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MO INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR BEFORE 14Z. THE SLOW
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.00
INCHES ARE STILL INDICATED BY THE 07Z HRRR/HRRR PARALLEL RUNS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO. 

THE CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO AN AREA (SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND NORTH
CENTRAL AR) WHERE THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES RISE
ABOVE 2.00 INCHES...SO TRAINING WILL BE NECESSARY TO PERPETUATE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD WANE
AFTER 13Z...AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO AREAS WITH
EVEN HIGHER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38589276 38149210 36629082 36269111 35779275 
            36739348 38079396