MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0466
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
927 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...CENTRAL/WESTERN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 160125Z - 160725Z
 
SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
ARRIVING THROUGH LATE-EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG QLCS IS SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KS AND DOWN THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A
DEEPER POOL OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES AS THE CONVECTION EVOLVES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE-EVENING HOURS.

MLCAPE VALUES NOSING INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST OK ARE BETWEEN
3000 AND 4000 J/KG...WITH PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.8 FOCUSED ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN A S/SE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SLOWLY VEERS WITH
TIME OVERNIGHT TO S/SW. CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TRANSPORT OF
THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT THROUGH 06Z AND BEYOND.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRP SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THE HIGH
PWAT ENVIRONMENT ALONG MAY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.5
TO 2 INCHES/HR AND SO THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK SAW RATHER
HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT...AND THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL ENHANCE
THE THREAT A BIT MORE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36939825 36489783 35419786 34659836 34109894 
            33639984 33640088 34100155 34670177 35160162 
            35840067 36599961 36909914