MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0467
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
950 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WESTERN TN...NORTHERN MS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 160145Z - 160600Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE GRADUALLY EAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. SOME
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...PULSE CELL CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND DOWN ADJACENT THE MS RIVER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED AND
FOCUSED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN TN AND EVEN NORTHWEST MS. THE
CONVECTION WHICH IS SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT IS BEING AIDED BY SOME
SHARPENING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE MID MS VALLEY WHICH
IS SHOWING UP RATHER NICELY NOW IN EARLY-EVENING IR/WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500
J/KG...AND A RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AS
HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POOL OF DRIER AIR NOTED
IN THE GPS-DERIVED DATA OVER CENTRAL TN. THE RAP FORECASTS HOWEVER
INDICATE A STEADY MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS OVER THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT.

HIRES MODEL TRENDS AS PER THE HRRR/HRRRP INDICATE SOME FOCUSING OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ESPECIALLY WEST-CENTRAL TN...WITH RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THIS MAY
SET UP TOO OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY
WITH RATHER SLOW CELL MOTION AND INTENSE RATES...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TN HAVE RECENTLY SEEN SOME HEAVIER RAINS...AND SO THE
RELATIVELY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED
RUNOFF POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER
06Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36708710 36288655 35238734 34578832 34378967 
            34689007 35708909 36608799