MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0469
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
713 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC...SOUTHERN VA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 162310Z - 170310Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING AND POSSIBLY TRAINING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED EXPANSION OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION INVOLVING PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NC. MULTIPLE BANDS ARE SEEN IN RADAR
IMAGERY...WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER NC HAVING A TENDENCY TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE CONVECTION BECOMING
ALIGNED GENERALLY SW/NE WITH THE MEAN LAYER FLOW.

PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND IT REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AREA. RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MADE THE
ANTECEDENT RATHER WET FOR ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHEAST
VA...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING WILL RISK THE
POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF AND/OR FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL RATES WELL OVER 2 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES...AND WITH THE TENDENCY FOR TRAINING
CELLS...RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VA AND NORTHERN NC
MAY TEND TO EXPAND MORE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS...AND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST VA MAY BE IN LINE EVENTUALLY FOR
MERGING BANDS OR CELLS OF CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37567701 37467649 37167610 36647608 36517691 
            36327809 36067909 35828069 35788142 36418168 
            36858133 37178012 37277943 37487806