MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0470
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
902 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SC...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 170100Z - 170600Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN EARLIER HEAVY RAINS AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF VERY
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION STRETCHING GENERALLY SSW/NNE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC AND EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST SC.
THE CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY ADVANCING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE BETWEEN
2 TO 3 INCHES/HR. THE DEEP MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS NEAR 2
INCHES CONTINUES TO FOSTER A HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES
FOR ENHANCED RATES.

THE LATEST GOES-OTD ALGORITHM CONFIRMS MULTIPLE OVERSHOOTING TOPS
NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER WEST OF LAURINBURG NC OVER THE LAST 30
MINUTES AND ALSO NEAR THE RALEIGH NC AREA. THE CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND GRADUALLY EASTERN NC AS A POOL OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
HIGH PWATS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE-EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.

HIRES HRRR AND HRRP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIALLY AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY TO
AROUND 6 INCHES. SOME OF THESE RAINS WILL BE FALLING OVER AREAS
THAT SAW HEAVY RAINS EARLIER...AND THESE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR MORE RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND/OR FLASH
FLOODING. 

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36637721 36537649 36377613 35987612 35697628 
            35297674 34577780 34217843 34037909 34087972 
            34587986 35077971 35777918 36247866 36467811