MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0483
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1125 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN OH... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 221524Z - 221824Z
 
SUMMARY...A BAND OF WEST-EAST ORIENTED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW
MOVING AS IT CROSSES SOUTH OF I-70. IN PARTICULAR...THE WESTERN
FLANK HAS REMAINED CLOSE TO QUASI-STATIONARY WITH STEADY MOISTURE
ADVECTION FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN INDIANA...A WEST-EAST AXIS OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-70. THE 14Z RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HEALTHY MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN
INDIANA WITH 2.25 TO 2.50 INCH PWATS MIGRATING TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. THE CONVECTION HAS THRIVED WITHIN AN AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE 2000 J/KG MUCAPE VALUES. REGENERATION OF
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OH WITHIN THE
UNCAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
TRAINING SIGNATURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. RECENT IMAGERY FROM THE KILN
RADAR SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE ANY OF THE INFLOW HAS BEEN CUT OFF TO THE LINE
YET. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO PERSIST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. RECENT CAMS HAVE NOT BEEN OF GREAT
ASSISTANCE THIS MORNING SO BASING MUCH OF THIS ANALYSIS ON
RADAR/SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL DATA.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40658145 40628088 40358067 39888065 39228147 
            38938306 38788414 39108489 39698489 39978431 
            40228258