MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0488
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
128 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN MO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 250525Z - 250930Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES IS EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING ALONG A VERY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRPNT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MO OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE AIRMASS POOLED ALONG
THE FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES STIL
LOCALLY OVER 3000 J/KG AND PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. MEANWHILE...A
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST OUT OF EASTERN IA AND INTO
WESTERN IL WHICH IS HELPING TO PROVIDE SOME LARGER SCALE FORCING.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
CONCENTRATED/FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MO IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SLOW CELL MOTION AND
EXPECTED INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES/HR WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE NEAR THE URBAN AREAS CENTERS INCLUDING ST
LOUIS.

EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES WHERE W/E
CELL-TRAINING SETS UP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH 09Z. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39868940 39748840 39108847 38598961 38299073 
            38139199 38309285 38649296 38999252 39169168 
            39479085