MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0492
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1049 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 260245Z - 260645Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME FLASH FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING IN RELATION TO WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED W/E ACROSS THE REGION.

THE HRRR AND HRRRP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING RATHER STRONGLY
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THAT CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE GOING THROUGH 06Z. VAD WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWS
VERY WEAK INFLOW INTO THESE STORMS...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSING
ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH AS MUCH AS 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

THE CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE FOR SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2
INCHES/HR. THE PWAT ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.1 INCHES.

EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN LOCALLY
THROUGH 06Z WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND/OR RUNOFF
PROBLEMS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36289684 36239628 36129586 35839536 35189541 
            34959598 34919689 35029788 35209850 35509864 
            35899843 36239777