MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0495
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
429 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...FAR WRN TN...FAR SERN MO...FAR SRN
IL...WRN KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 272030Z - 280230Z
 
SUMMARY...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING REMNANT TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTINUES TO DIRECT A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX INTO THE LOWER MS AND
OH VALLEYS.  MOISTURE DRAWN INTO THE REGION IS POOLING ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH
VALLEY BACK INTO CENTRAL AR.  PWS ARE CURRENTLY 2.25-2.5 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-4000
J/KG.  THE 18 UTC RAP SHOWS PWS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY.  THIS MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH LARGER-SCALE LIFT AFFORDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 02 UTC...THE 19Z RUNS OF
THE OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL HRRR...AS WELL AS THE 12Z NSSL-WRF
AND HRW-ARW/NMMB SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES.  

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37678679 36838691 36158861 35488981 34799047 
            34009161 34249269 35789186 37218944