MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0496
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...FAR SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...NWRN TN...KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 280100Z - 280700Z
 
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...CARRYING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SLOW-MOVING REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.  THIS IS DIRECTING MOISTURE INTO A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
PWS OF 2.25-2.5 INCHES CENTERED ALONG THE LOWER MS INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...WHILE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION.  THIS IS RESULTING IN RAINFALL RATES AS
HIGH AS 2.5-3 IN/HR...AS SHOWN BY KPAH RADAR.  AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE 23 UTC RAP SHOWS 15-20 KTS OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW
EAST OF THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN PWS TO OVER
2.5 INCHES ACROSS SOME AREAS.  THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
LARGER-SCALE LIFT AFFORDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...DECREASING
INSTABILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT RAINFALL RATES AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.  

FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 07 UTC...THE 23 UTC RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL HRRR SHOW WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF 1-2 INCH ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
2-5 INCHES.  

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37858689 37068490 36698629 36218850 34989080 
            35659112 36858990