MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0497
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...W & CENT KENTUCKY...SW OHIO...NW TENNESSEE...EXT
SE INDIANA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 280600Z - 281200Z
 
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME REPEAT/TRAINING WITHIN A
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. 

DISCUSSION...WV LOOP INDICATES A WELL DEFINED FORMER TUTT CELL
CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND WITH
DESCENDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS
NARROWS/FOCUSES AN AXIS OF FLOW AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  SUFFICIENT 60KT UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS GREAT LAKES/N OH
RIVER VALLEY SUPPORTS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND OUTFLOW CHANNEL ACROSS
KY INTO SW OH AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-LEVELS MODERATE SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES PROVIDE AMPLE MST TRANSPORT ALONG AND EAST OF
DEEPLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WHERE TPWS ARE AT OR ABOVE 2.25".
STRONG DEEP LAYERED MST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM KMEM TO KBWG TO A SFC LOW SE OF KCMH
CONTINUES TO ACT AS A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  STEERING FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO IT ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO SW OHIO...PROVIDING AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR REPEAT CELL TRACKS AND COMPOUNDED RAINFALL TOTALS.
 THOUGH INSTABILITY IS AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG IT WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITH RATES UP TO
2.0"/HR.  RAPID REFRESH HI-RES CAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS
SCENARIO MAY PRODUCE A SWATH OF 3-5" TOTALS WITHIN THE AREA OF
CONCERN THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE A BIT FURTHER SW THAN BEST
FORCING/CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR/SATL SUGGEST. 

FURTHER EAST IN CENTRAL KY...AT THE SURFACE AN OLD OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT MOVED INTO E TN IS NOW RETURNING NORTHWARD
AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SPARK SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS S CENTRAL AND E KY ATTM...THOUGH THERE
WILL BE LACK OF TRAINING (EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED AREAS WHERE
UPSTREAM/CLOSER TO SFC ROOTED DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD)...LOWER FFG AND SATURATED SOILS MAY STILL LEAD TO
SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39398430 38968325 38048294 37638346 36908564 
            35858791 36238865 37158777 38468599 39098510