MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0508
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
106 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AND CENTRAL KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 310505Z - 311100Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITHIN A TRAINING PROFILE FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS. 

DISCUSSION...DDC VWP INDICATING THAT LLJ IS BEGINNING TO
INERTIALLY ROTATE FROM SSE AND EVENTUALLY TO SW OVER THE NEXT FEW
HORUS.  00Z LMN/DDC SOUNDINGS BOTH SUPPORT MAXIMIZED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO PRESSURE CONTOURS ON THE 312K
SURFACE AROUND 820MB AND VWP NETWORK SUPPORTS NEAR 40KT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL.  RAP ANALYSIS AND FORECAST FIELDS INDICATE A POCKET OF
3000+ J/KG MUCAPE THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY TO INTERSECT THIS FORCING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH TPW
FIELDS STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE ZONE TO OVER 2"
SUPPORTING INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITH RATES
AT OR ABOVE 2"/HR LIKELY. AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR LOW LEVEL
TURNING THROUGH THE LOWER CLOUD BEARING LEVELS FROM 8H-6H MAY
SUPPORT A BROADER LESS FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION.  THIS IS
THE ONLY QUESTION WITH RESPECT TO FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS AS
CELL MOTIONS MAY BE MORE EASTERLY (SUGGESTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE
RAP) THAN SE AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR.

IF BEST TRAINING AND HIGH RATES REACH EXPECTATIONS...LOCALIZED
TOTALS OVER 3-5" ARE POSSIBLE LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS
THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. 
 


GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39949926 39819716 38949601 37749558 37709675 
            38289841 38969925 39549976 39899961