MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0509
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
557 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND EASTERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 311000Z - 311600Z
 
SUMMARY...MCS BECOMING MATURE THOUGH SOME  REPEAT/TRAINING
CONTINUES TO POSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD CONCERN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IN E KS. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR SHOWS A STRONG COLD MCS ACROSS N CENTRAL KS
ATTM WITH TOPS WITH STRONGEST CORES REACHING AS COLD AS -70C.  VAD
WIND PROFILE NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SWLY FLOW AT 850
IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE.  RAP FORECAST CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE
STRENGTH OF THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE WANING.
RADAR MOSAIC ALONG WITH METAR/LSR INDICATE COMPLEX HAS GENERATED A
COLD POOL THAT IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG THE SE FLANK
OF THE COMPLEX.  GIVEN CENTRAL AND E KS HAS SEEN LIMITED ISOLATED
CONVECTION THUS FAR...FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO UNTAPPED REMAINING
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH TPWS
AROUND 2"...CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGH EFFICIENCY FOR RAINFALL
GENERATION WITH RATES OVER 2"/HR LIKELY THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
WANING AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACCELERATES INTO E KS/W CENTRAL MO.
 

THIS SETUP MATCHES WELL WITH THE HRRR AND ALONG WITH SOME RECENT
RUNS FROM THE HRRR PARALLEL...CONTINUES TO OUTPERFORM MOST HI-RES
GUIDANCE WITH THIS COMPLEX.  THE HRRR REMAINS SUGGESTIVE OF
ISOLATED 3-4" TOTALS PARTICULARLY BETWEEN SLN/MHK/EMP WHERE FFG
ARE A BIT LOWER.  AS SUCH FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE EVEN
FURTHER SE INTO E KS THROUGH 15-16Z...ESPECIALLY IF ISOLATED
PRECURSORY CELLS PRODUCE POCKETS OF 1-2" PRIOR TO THE MAIN LINE
ROLLS THROUGH.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39869720 39809628 39489541 38959501 38089464 
            37569496 38049677 38219746 38509849 39199860 
            39499814