MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0511...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1128 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR WESTWARD EXPANSION OF DISCUSSION AREA TO INCLUDE
KANSAS CITY METRO

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO...SOUTHWEST IA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010315Z - 010915Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING THREAT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NW TO CENTRAL MO WITH FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9UM SWIR AND 11UM IR CHANNELS INDICATE A
BROAD AREA OF AGITATED LOW CLOUDS/TCU DEVELOPING FROM KAFK SE
THROUGH SOME DEEPER CELLS NEAR KCOU.  VWP SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE
IN 850 LLJ WHICH IS BACKING SWLY AT 20-25 KTS ACROSS KS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS ACROSS NE KS/W MO BY 07Z. 
ACCORDING TO 00Z RAOB PROFILES SUPPORT DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS
WELL AS AMPLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR FAIRLY HEFTY MUCAPES IN
THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE AND TPWS FROM 2 RISING TO 2.25" PER RAP
FORECAST.  LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL VEERING
WHICH MAY BROADEN THE LINE OF CONVECTION BEFORE FLOW IS MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE 6H.  STILL CELL MOTIONS AND 500-1000
THICKNESS LINES SUPPORT SELY PROPAGATION AND DEEPER CELL MOTIONS E
TO ESE AT 5-10 FOR SLOW MOTIONS AND SOME TRAINING FOR INCREASED
RAINFALL TOTALS.  GIVEN ENVIRONMENT RAIN RATES OF 2-2.5"/HR ARE
LIKELY WITH SOME HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH MERGERS.  

HI-RES CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDING
BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH LOCATION OF THE CONVECTIVE AXIS.  THE
HRRR VERSION 2 AND 3 AS WELL AS RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SW TO NE
ACROSS SE NEB/SW IA. OTHER HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
ARW/NMMB/NAM-CONEST FAVORING LATER DEVELOPMENT AND FURTHER EAST
FROM CENTRAL IA TO NE MO.  GIVEN THE HRRR VERSIONS HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER OVER THE FEW NIGHTS WITH SIMILAR SETUPS
ELSEWHERE IN THE PLAINS...AND SWIR PICTURE CURRENTLY WILL FAVOR
THESE OUTCOME OF LOCATION AND TIMING.  RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CAM SUITE THOUGH TO SUGGEST TOTALS
IN THE 3-5" RANGE ALONG THE NW-SE AXIS...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
GOOD THOUGH HYDROLOGIC SITUATION OF HIGHER GUIDANCE (GREATER THAN
3" IN 3HR) ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL MO MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING.   

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41019485 40619373 39919260 39549197 38519057 
            37709133 38229307 38609402 38899476 39609566 
            40459605 40929583