MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0513
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...MISSOURI...S CENTRAL IOWA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 010900Z - 011500Z
 
SUMMARY...MATURE LINEAR MCS TO CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER SAME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL MO WITH LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AS
MCS CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EXTREME RAINFALL RATES/LATENT HEAT RELEASE HAS
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCV NEAR OSAGE/MARIES COUNTY MO. 
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX RESPONSE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STRONG
CONVECTION WITH HIGH EFFICIENCY RAINFALL PRODUCTION NEAR THIS CORE
AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INT SE MO. HOWEVER...THIS HAS ALSO LEAD TO A
STRONG COLD POOL GENERATION AND FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE SW
FLANK OF THE LINE ACROSS S CENTRAL MO WHICH IS PROPAGATING
PARALLEL TO THE SUSTAINING 850MB SWLY ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM 30-40
KT LLJ PER VWP AT TOP/EAX/SGF.  EXPECT ISOLATED FINGERS OF
CONVECTION TO BUILD WEST INTO THE LLJ GIVEN THIS ORIENTATION TO
THE FLOW...BUT CLEARLY A REDUCTION OF LARGER AREAL COVERAGE/THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS N CENTRAL MO INTO S CENTRAL IA...THE LLJ
MAINTAINS NEAR PERPENDICULAR ASCENT VECTORS TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE
AND SOUTHWARD CELL MOTIONS WITHIN THE LINE...MAINTAINING THE
TRAINING PROFILE.  RAP FORECAST SUGGESTS LLJ WILL MAINTAIN
STRENGTH THROUGH 15Z AND SLACKEN AND VEER FURTHER NORTH INTO IA
EARLIER THAN IN W CENTRAL MO.  UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH MUCAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS E KS AND
TPWS OVER 2.25"...CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE IN
RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITH RATES OVER 2.5" LIKELY WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER SPOTS.  EVENTUALLY AS LLJ WEAKENS AND COLD POOLS
DOMINATE...FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL EXIST AND 500-1000MB THICKNESS
FIELDS SUPPORT NEAR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN... WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5" POSSIBLE (AND WITH 3-7" ALREADY FALLEN) LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WITH MAX TOTALS NEAR 7-9"  POSSIBLE. 
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG CONSISTENCY FROM ALL THREE VERSIONS OF
THE HRRR WHICH CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41239442 40879369 39709300 38799203 38279099 
            38179051 37939017 37399066 37259138 37209274 
            37319337 37789400 38379422 39009440 40399479 
            40939475