MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0514
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
705 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN IA...FAR SOUTHEAST SD 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011105Z - 011500Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL FEED CONVECTION
PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES... WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING. 

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY INTO WESTERN IA AND FAR SOUTHEAST SD. THE IR LOOP SHOWED
CLOUD TOPS COOLING WITH THIS FEATURE...AS THE KDMX VWP SHOWED A 20
TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG THE CONVECTIVE AXIS. THE
CONVECTION IS TAPPING 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE STRETCHING FROM THE
MCS OVER MO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD...WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF 1.50-2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THUS FAR...THE KDMX
RADAR HAS SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES...MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL IA.

THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AXIS OF MUCAPE AND
MOISTURE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OPPOSES THE MID
LEVEL FLOW DURING THIS TIME...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IA INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST SD. AFTER 15Z...THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW STARTS TO WEAKEN A
BIT (PER THE LATEST RAP)...AND THE ACTIVITY STARTS TO BECOME MORE
SURFACE BASED BY THE TIME. 

THE LATEST HRRR/HRRR EXPERIMENTAL/HRRR PARALLEL SHOWED THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST SIGNAL OVER WEST CENTRAL IA...JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA COVERED BY MPD 513. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES...SO AT THIS
TIME... FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   43759673 43329555 42449424 41669349 40919314 
            40599339 40319486 42119667 43189752 43619761