MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0515...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1122 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011500Z - 011800Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN
IA INTO CENTRAL MO MAY PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50
INCHES AT TIMES. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING
FLOODING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BECOME EXHAUSTED...AND THE IR LOOP SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL
RATES HAVE DIPPED AS WELL...BASED ON THE KDMX RADAR ESTIMATES.

HOWEVER...MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN HIGH... AND THERE IS A SOURCE OF
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE JUST SOUTHWEST OF IA/MO. THE LATEST RAP
SHOWED THAT THE MUCAPE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD
BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREAS HARDEST HIT WITH FLOODING EARLIER
THIS MORNING. WHILE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY COULD WANE
FOR THE TIMING BEING...LOCAL HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.00
AND 1.50 INCHES COULD RESULT IN AN AGGRAVATION OF FLOODING IN
AREAS OF SATURATED SOIL. 

THE LATEST HRRR/HRRR EXPERIMENTAL/HRRR PARALLEL ALL SUGGEST HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES EXTENDING FROM KCIN TO
KVIH THROUGH 17Z (THOUGH GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY... THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL MAKES
(AS WET BULB ZERO VALUES EXTEND ABOVE 13000 FT) SUGGEST THAT
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.50 INCHES CAN OCCUR. THIS COULD
AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MO. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...LSX...OAX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42889600 42229360 39719164 38849143 37749286 
            38149391 41589581 41589582