MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0518...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
735 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR UPDATED GRAPHIC

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MO...SOUTH CENTRAL IA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021130Z - 021530Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AS THE MORNING CONTINUES TO PROGRESS IT IS EXPECTED
THAT A LOW LEVEL JET VEERING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT
THE DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS.  HOWEVER IN THE INTERIM....PWS OF 2.1-2.3 INCHES
AND MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG FED BY WESTERLY 15-20 KT LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION AND
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.  FOR THE 3-HR
PERIOD ENDING AT 14 UTC...THE 10 UTC OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL RUNS
OF THE HRRR SHOW LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL MO.  BOTH RUNS SHOW LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IA...BUT GIVEN THE
COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATED BY GOES-IR AND INCREASING RAINFALL
RATES SHOWN BY KDMX RADAR...SUSPECT THOSE AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE. 

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41329275 40539179 39319070 38129054 38169136 
            38739208 40499245 41089298