MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0522
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS FROM NERN GA TO WRN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 040641Z - 041200Z
 
SUMMARY...MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
12Z. SPOTTY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z. 

DISCUSSION...PAST FEW HOURS OF REGIONAL RADAR AND 3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS SHOWED 2 DISTINCT NARROW CHANNELS OF
MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WRN
ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC AND SC. 00Z SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUPPORTED SATURATED LOW-MID LEVELS WITH WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 14.5 AND 15 KFT AGL AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF ROUGHLY 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES. CAPE HAS BEEN A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NC...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN GA INTO
WRN SC. 

LOW LEVEL ELY OR SELY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
NARROW CHANNELS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT TO
JUST PAST SUNRISE. GIVEN OPPOSING MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE ENTIRE WIND PROFILE...STORMS MAY BECOME ANCHORED
ALONG THE TERRAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. THIS MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES IN ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS. WHILE
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR AND
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
SENSITIVE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY EXPERIENCE RUNOFF ISSUES.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36538085 36498049 36128057 35468112 34448267 
            34238357 34388387 34718404 35128381 35458305 
            35718261 35978216 36338165 36508115