MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0523
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHERN NV/NORTH TO EASTERN
AZ/SOUTHEASTERN UT/WESTERN NM/SOUTHWESTERN CO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041845Z - 050045Z
 
SUMMARY...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AMIDST
AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL FLOW REGIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED MANY CB
TOWERS ERUPTING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AZ WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FIRING NEAR THE MCV AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS BORDER.
EXPECT FLASH FLOODING TO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SLOW CELL MOTIONS IN
THE PRESENCE OF NEAR RECORD PWATS.

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS AZ SUGGESTED VERY MOIST AIR
HAS REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. PWAT VALUES FROM PHOENIX
AND TUCSON GENERALLY RANGED FROM 1.90 TO 2.05 INCHES WHICH ARE
NEAR DAILY RECORDS. WHILE EARLY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ
LEFT A REMNANT CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD...THIS HAS GRADUALLY ERODED AS
SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BREAKING OUT OVER SOUTHEASTERN AZ IN THE PRESENCE OF 2000 J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE. SOUNDINGS SHOWED RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN PLACE
WHICH WILL PROMOTE SLOW CELL MOTIONS ACROSS THE STATE. ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF FOCUS WILL BE AROUND THE NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE...TWO OF WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAS
VEGAS NV AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHEASTERN AZ. EXPECT HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING THE 0.50 TO 1 INCH RANGE IN ANY OF THE
MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION CORES. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF CELL MERGERS AS WELL AS ACROSS REGIONS OF OROGRAPHY.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE RECENT CAMS SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE MPD AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. IT
APPEARS THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM WHICH IS WHERE SOME OF THE BEST
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED.



RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37211046 37180893 36680771 35460752 33850777 
            32210800 31250853 30871003 31191113 32291190 
            34181192 34861262 35041360 35141461 35541510 
            36191511 36721464 36951375 37061237