MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0524
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KY...SOUTHERN IN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 042003Z - 042300Z
 
SUMMARY...HIGHLY EFFICIENT BUT SLOW MOVING CELLS MAY POSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.  12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED PW
VALUES ALREADY RUNNING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES NOSING INTO THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A
VORTICITY CENTER STRADDLING THE OH RIVER WHICH WAS HELPING FOCUS
AND ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. WITH VAD WIND PROFILERS ACROSS THE
AREA SHOWING FLOW AT OR LESS THAN 10 KTS UP THROUGH AT LEAST 700
MB...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CELL MOTION. 
QPF FROM THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WERE PRETTY LIGHT AND APPEARED TO
HAVE NOT YET CAPTURED THE ONGOING CONVECTION. 

THINK THAT THE CELL COVERAGE AND RAINFALL RATES WILL EASE TOWARDS
SUNSET GIVEN THE DECREASING INSOLATION AND GROWING CLOUD TOP
CANOPY.  BUT THE COMBINATION OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING UNTIL THEN. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...IND...JKL...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39558616 39048585 38318518 37868474 37208445 
            36928530 37658615 38618676