MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0526
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO EASTERN AZ/FAR WEST-CENTRAL NM... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 051822Z - 052252Z
 
SUMMARY...AN AREA OF TOWERING CU CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE IN
THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING SURFACE INSOLATION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS
WITHIN THE PERSISTENT MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE
WHERE CELL MERGERS AND REPEAT CONVECTION OCCUR.

DISCUSSION...AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPED NORTH OF
PHOENIX AZ HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. PER INFORMATION FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS....0.88 INCHES OF
RAIN FELL IN ONLY 30 MINUTES WHICH LED TO CURB-TO-CURB STREET
FLOODING. SUCH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
CONVECTIVE CELLS CURRENTLY FIRING. AS OF 1800Z...A NUMBER OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NM. THE MEAN-STEERING FLOW
SHOULD TAKE THESE CELLS NORTHWARD IN TIME. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATE OR
MERGE WILL BE LIKELY AREAS FOR A FLASH FLOOD RISK. CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT IS ON THE LOWER SIDE BUT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RIPE
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS REGION.

THE 12Z HRW-ARW/NMM-B AND RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR/HRRR-PARALLEL/HRRR-EXPERIMENTAL SEEM TO AGREE ON
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THE MPD AREA. THEY SUGGEST
FAIRLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z BEFORE SPREADING
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN NM/SOUTHERN CO.
 

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36480896 36280818 35830760 35060757 34370779 
            33880783 33290810 32870841 32690901 32690986 
            33121094 33351174 33341260 34011335 34741355 
            35451344 35891270 35991196 35521104 35411033 
            35630961