MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0527
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
444 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST CO...NORTHERN NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 052044Z - 060100Z
 
SUMMARY...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST CO AND NORTHERN NM AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
THIS AFTERNOON.  AS STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING INCREASES GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION...THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP MOISTURE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CELL MERGERS. 

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. 
THE MEAN-STEERING FLOW SHOULD TAKE THESE CELLS NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD IN TIME. GIVEN THE CONTINUED WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATE OR MERGE WILL BE LIKELY
AREAS FOR A FLASH FLOOD RISK. CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE BUT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RIPE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

THE 12Z HRW-ARW/NMM-B AND RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR/HRRR-PARALLEL/HRRR-EXPERIMENTAL SEEM TO AGREE ON
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THE MPD AREA. THEY SUGGEST
FAIRLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST 0130Z.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39500545 37850572 36400520 34700601 34400705 
            34770744 35340746 35840752 36260800 36660887 
            37530940 39150859