MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0528
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
855 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060054Z - 060530Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GROW OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IT IS EXPECTED THAT STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES FOR FLOODING SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF ALONG AND WEST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRONT RANGE
WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS HAS A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH TIME.

DISCUSSION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NM AND FAR
SOUTHERN CO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THE THREAT SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE AS THE MODELS DEPICT LOSS OF INSTABILITY FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z IN AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE.

THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHWEST KS AND PARTS OF THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS HIGHER MUCAPE VALUES AND
INCREASING INFLOW AT H85/H70 WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS AND ORGANIZE
THE CONVECTION THROUGH 06/0530Z.

CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT IS ON THE LOWER SIDE BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS RIPE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING. 

THE 12Z HRW-ARW/NMM-B AND RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR/HRRR-PARALLEL/HRRR-EXPERIMENTAL SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WESTWARD
FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...EPZ...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37950383 37450081 34910106 34900492 33770566 
            33370616 33560689 34980686 35060768 35440822 
            35920824 36570772 37050573