MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0529
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1214 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO TO THE MISS RIVER VALELY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 060412Z - 060820Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES MAXING OUT IN THE 3-4 IN/HR
RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NRN AR/SERN MO THROUGH
AT LEAST 07Z WITH CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL INTENSITIES
MAY DIMINISH THEREAFTER...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR AT 04Z SHOWED TWO RELATIVELY
DISORGANIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...ONE ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER AND
THE OTHER IN SERN MO. TWO SEPARATE REPORTS OF 3.0 TO 3.5 IN/HR
RAINFALL RATES WERE REPORTED IN BAXTER COUNTY ARKANSAS AS OF 03Z.
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM LZK AND SGF SHOWED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 13 AND 15 KFT ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR
ABOUT 2 INCHES AND 3000-4000 J/KG OF CAPE. THE TWO CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION WERE GRADUALLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE ERN MO/AR
BORDER WHERE A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS OBSERVED AT SGF AND LZK IS
BELIEVED TO BE PRESENT.

STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW...OFF TOWARD THE E OR ESE AT 5-15
KTS...AND SIMILAR FLOW BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB WAS OBSERVED ON THE
VAD WIND PROFILE OUT OF SGF...WHICH SUGGESTS THE CLUSTERS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OFF TOWARD THE ESE WITH SOME TRAINING AND
PERHAPS NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE ERN
MO/AR BORDER. 

SOME INCREASE TO THE 850-700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z...BUT
IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT HOW THIS MAY IMPACT CONVECTION WITH
MANY OF THE FORECAST SIMULATED REFLECTIVITIES FROM THE EMC HRRR
AND ESRL EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOWING DISSIPATION NEAR 09Z. UPDATES
WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37299017 36778944 35938934 35479022 35549130 
            35859252 36619299 37049253 37129128