MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0530
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK INTO THE OZARKS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060632Z - 061230Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN/NERN OK...WITH TRAINING AND A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT DEVELOPING BY 09-12Z. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 IN/HR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL 3-5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED...ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL OK...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT.
INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN OFF TOWARD THE EAST AT ROUGHLY
15 KTS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AN ESTIMATED
500-1500 J/KG CAPE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES. 

ACCORDING TO THE RAP...850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS CNTRL OK BY 10Z INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE...WHILE
700 MB WINDS INCREASE ANOTHER 5-10 KTS AT THEIR PRESENT DIRECTION
FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF STORM MOTIONS OFF TOWARD THE
E...ESE AROUND A 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER...AND
SIMILAR LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE WNW COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
TRAINING OF CELLS LATER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION MAY COME AHEAD OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30 KTS THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE AS OF
06Z. 

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND PARALLEL HRRR HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING
THE CONVECTION IN NERN OK QUITE RIGHT...BUT AGREE ON THE IDEA OF
TRAINING ACROSS THE OK/KS BORDER AFTER 12Z. FEEL THE ACTUAL TIMING
OF TRAINING COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HEAVIER THAN WHAT THE HRRRS HAVE BEEN INDICATING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   37719687 37629637 37429526 37239444 36859374 
            36399353 35949351 35409387 35169454 35149571 
            35189619 35699729 36499797 37139802 37629754