MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0531
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN CO/WESTERN TO CENTRAL
KS/NORTH-CENTRAL OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 070059Z - 070659Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN CO IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX LATER THIS EVENING
AND EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER SHOULD HELP
EXPAND THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. GIVEN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...HOURLY RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING
1 TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

DISCUSSION...AT 00Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHARP
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE LEADING TO A MARKED TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
GOING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE UP TO WEST-CENTRAL KS. THE INITIAL
CONVECTION ERUPTING JUST SOUTH OF I-70 IN EASTERN CO HAS BEEN
SLOW-MOVING WITH QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS IT FEEDS OFF
THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. RECENT RAP RUNS SHOW THIS
REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THE 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. BASED ON CURRENT
AND FORECAST INSTABILITY PROFILES...THIS COMPLEX SHOULD STAY
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF KS  WHERE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ROAB FROM DDC DID SHOW A BIT
OF CAPPING IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER.

EVALUATING SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS...PARTICULARLY THE HOURLY
UPDATE HRRR CYCLES...THEY SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.
ALL RECENT GUIDANCE DO SHOW THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT
PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A GRADUAL EXPANSION
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38680120 38459970 37969881 37079828 36609916 
            36719992 37090094 37430245 38300245